I had a hard time deciding whether or not to publish this……….but it’s good. Reminds me of Yogi Berra, “the future ain’t what it used to be“.
To make a good decision, you need to have a sense of two things: how different choices change the likelihood of different outcomes and how desirable each of those outcomes is. In other words, decision making requires both prediction and judgment.
But how do you get better at either? Here are three rules that stand out. Following them will improve your ability to predict the effects of your choices and assess their desirability.
Rule #1: Be less certain.
The first rule of decision making is to just be less certain — about everything. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably a bit less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well. Once you accept that you’re overconfident, you can revisit the logic of your decision. While it’s not possible to always be right, it’s totally possible to become less overconfident. Read More